I’ve noticed that some concerns have been raised on our Discord server about IdleMMO’s player population. While I’ve responded to these concerns directly in the server a few times, I realise those messages might not have reached everyone who needs to see them.
Let me put it simply: not only is this trend completely normal and expected, but we’re actually doing better than we initially anticipated - losing players at a slower rate than expected. In other words, we’re still exceeding expectations.
To understand why some players are moving on, it’s important to first look at what drove the surge in downloads in the first place.
Increased Player Count
When we launched the game on Google Play, it introduced the game to tens of thousands of players almost instantly. In fact, within just 24 hours of release, we saw over 1,500 downloads.
The trend took off immediately, with the game reaching thousands of players right from day one. Google Play deserves a lot of credit for this - their store does an amazing job of promoting apps, without us having to do a thing. In fact, they’re far better at this than the Apple App Store.
This isn’t our first experience with Google Play’s organic download surges, either. With our other game, SimpleMMO, we’ve seen similar spikes in downloads. I can’t give you an exact explanation of how this works - after all, I don’t work at Google - but from what i’ve observed, the apps shown on Google Play are always changing depending on trends.
But it didn’t stop there - it started feeding into itself. We had a sizable group of players eagerly waiting for the Android release, and that initial wave of downloads probably caught Google’s algorithm’s attention. The surge likely made the algorithm think, “Hey, this game is doing great - let’s give it more visibility.” Of course, I say “likely” because, again, we can’t know for sure as we don’t work at Google. That said, this fits with how most trend-based ranking systems work. Once momentum starts building, it often snowballs - leading to even more visibility and, in turn, even more downloads.
As a result, the rate at which players were downloading and playing the game kept climbing week after week - far beyond what we had anticipated. In just over two months, we surpassed 100,000 downloads solely on Google Play alone.
This trend continued upwards for a few months. In fact, we peaked at 3,400 downloads in a single day - which for an independent game with almost zero financially-backed marketing is nothing short of staggering.
Naturally - this wasn’t going to last forever and it would be downright delusional to think it would.
It’s impossible to maintain a such a huge surge
From the moment we noticed the game was trending, we knew it wouldn’t last forever. Trends like this always lose steam eventually, and the player count starts to decline - it’s just the nature of things. The real question for us was: how high would the peak be before the slowdown? And as it turns out, it was pretty bloody high. At one point, we had over 13,000 active characters online at the same time.
If you had told me this time last year that we’d hit those numbers, I’d have thought you’d lost the plot.
I knew we wouldn’t be able to maintain that peak indefinitely, no matter what we did. No game - no matter how amazing - can sustain its highest point forever after a surge in downloads, especially without serious financial backing. It’s not a failure; it’s just how the world works. The same concept applies to almost anything.
A better way to look at it is like this: Have you ever been to a large shop on an opening day? It’s packed. Over a week, the rush and excitement of something new fades down until it gets to a level where the super market can maintain and start to grow clientele from.
The truth is, the game launched on the Play Store back in May, and it’s only now that we’re starting to see its momentum slow down. Honestly, we’re amazed it lasted this long.
Are we sure its because of the downloads?
Yes, because it’s evident from the stats we can see. It also aligns with the nature of trends that I mentioned earlier. Again, we’ve seen similar peaks and valleys with our other game, SimpleMMO, many times. It’s not unusual, especially when it comes to Google Play. Their search algorithm changes frequently, which has a direct impact on the number of organic downloads any app receives.
And if, in the unlikely event, this is happening because the game isn’t as good as we’d like and Google gave us more downloads than we truly deserved, our response is straightforward: we’ll keep improving the game. And that’s exactly what we’re doing.
"But... but... it was the Battle Rework! I swear!"
I’ve seen this mentioned a few times on the Discord server. No, it’s not the reworked battle system - or, for that matter, any specific change we’ve made. In fact, here’s the thing: every change we make seems to make some people leave, as bizarre as that might sound. It’s just a reality of change.
Whether it’s one frustrated player or a small group, it’s impossible to please everyone. No matter how beneficial a change might be overall, there will always be someone who isn’t happy with it. This xkcd comic perfectly sums it up better than I ever could:
I think some people don’t realise just how much downloads influence the game’s population. It’s orders of magnitude greater than most other factors. Honestly, I can confidently say that even if I introduced the absolute worst feature imaginable - some pay-to-win nightmare - it still wouldn’t affect the game as much as the sheer volume of downloads does. It’s practically basic math at this point.
Think about it logically for a moment. At one point, we were getting nearly 3,500 new players in a single day. And remember, that surge continued for months. Do you know how massive an exodus would have to be to cause a population shift on that scale? Even if we made a change that not only upset a ton of people but cause them to leave - let’s say a few hundred - it’s still just a tiny fraction compared to the influx of new players we got in one single day.
Just because some Discord servers are seeing a few people leave due to dissatisfaction with changes doesn’t mean it’s a major issue. This is a classic example of the availability heuristic - a bias where people overestimate the importance of something based on the information most easily available to them, rather than looking at the bigger picture. In this case, it’s their own experiences in Discord giving a skewed perspective.
That said, I'm not saying changes don't impact the downloads - of course they do. Any change will influence the game’s trend and key quality metrics, like how long players stick around before uninstalling. But for a shift this dramatic, it would take a significant, underlying, and fundamental change to the core gameplay. Even then, it’s not always enough. Honestly, I’ve seen games over the past few years that seemed doomed to fail after introducing sleazy dark patterns, yet somehow they’re still going strong.
Obtaining More Downloads
Given the nature of our decline, it’s fair to ask: if downloads are the issue, why not just focus on getting more downloads? Well… it’s not that simple. Almost all of our downloads have been entirely organic, and that’s something we don’t have much direct control over.
Sure, we could take steps to nudge the trend in the right direction - like optimizing our App Store page or running a marketing campaign. But right now, our main priority is what really matters: making the game better. The other things, like marketing and perfecting our store presence, can come later. Those efforts take significant time and resources, and we’d rather focus on them once the game is out of beta.
Putting Numbers In Perspective
Another thing people often overlook is that the situation looks worse than it really is because our player numbers are abnormally high. In fact, I’ve already mentioned that I didn’t expect the numbers to reach this level within a year of release - especially since we’re still technically in beta. But because the numbers are so big, even a small percentage of players leaving can seem like a much bigger issue than it actually is.
Think about it: if we have 13,000 active players on average and lose 10% over two or three months, that’s 1,300 players gone - a big number on the surface. Now compare that to when we had just 1,000 active players early on. Losing the same 10% would mean only 100 players - a much smaller number that doesn’t sound nearly as bad.
Don’t get me wrong here. It’s the same percentage, relatively speaking, but the larger active player count makes any decline seem far more dramatic. Of course, I’m not saying losing players is a good thing - it depends on the circumstances. But I’m pointing out that our unusually high player base creates a glaring perception problem: the losses look bigger simply because we started with more.
So, what now?
As with anything in life, the trend will naturally continue to decline until it reaches a stable point - where new and returning players balance each other out. It’s just the way things work, and there’s not much we can do to change it.
The real question is: at what point will the inflow and outflow of players even out? Honestly, I can’t answer that. But this brings up an even more important question…
Does it even matter?
Now is a good time for introspection. As your self these questions: Are you still having fun? So what if the game is losing players? Does it really matter? Honestly, it doesn’t - not to us, given the reasons behind the decline. We’ve already far exceeded our expectations - beyond anything I ever thought possible within the first year of launch. What truly matters is that we focus on making the best game we can and enjoying the process along the way.
If we were losing players because we were actively making the game worse, that would be a different story. That would be a sign for us to take a step back and reassess. But that’s simply not the case. The decline is part of a normal trend, and, truthfully, there’s very little we can do to stop it. We're a small independent company. We simply don't have the financial backing to keep it artificially propped up.
As far as app-based live-service games go, we’re in a unique and fortunate position here. We're a completely independent, bootstrapped company. We’re not focused on micro-optimizing every single mechanic to keep you hooked indefinitely. We’re not here to nickel-and-dime you or squeeze every cent out of your pockets. I understand that its natural for peoples interest to slowly diminish, and I'm not going to hold that against them. Our goal is pretty simple: make a damn great game and have fun doing it.
As far as I’m concerned, if we stay focused on creating something genuinely good, the community will naturally follow. Obsessing over trying to maintain the massive surge of players we saw at its absolute peak is like trying to stop an avalanche with a shovel - why waste that effort when we could be doing something meaningful instead?